Russian political technologists – experts in “information warfare” – prepare for US elections

Russia’s political technologists were planning last year for influence operations designed to impact the upcoming US elections by exploiting concerns about immigration, identity politics and culture wars.

The analysis, from Cardiff University, shows they also constructed detailed profiles of senior US political figures who they predicted might feature prominently in the electoral race.

New evidence is also presented about the work of the Social Design Agency, which was the focus of a legal affidavit published by the US Department of Justice at the start of September 2024. The findings show how their information operations are using artificial intelligence technologies and are taking place on the game Minecraft.

One political technologist who visited London for his research into British electoral processes during the Brexit vote in 2016 has been delivering training on disinformation methods ahead of the US elections.

Yevgeny Minchenko’s publication, “How elections are won in the USA, Great Britain and the European Union: analysis of political technologies,”  includes survey materials provided to him by UK politicians, campaign staff, political consultants, and journalists.

The analysis of open-source data shows that Minchenko was in Mayfair conducting “participant observation” on the day of the historic Brexit vote in 2016, sharing pictures of polling stations with his social media followers in Russia.

According to the findings, he is one of 500 political technologists performing a variety of roles in Russia and internationally, with some directed by state officials and intelligence agencies. The report describes this “middle tier” of professionals who sit between Kremlin strategy and the delivery of disinformation operations.

Professor Martin Innes, Director of the University’s Security, Crime and Intelligence Innovation Institute, who carried out the independent analysis with UK Government funding, said: “Political technology is an increasingly prestigious professional industry in Russia. In this research we describe and assess some of the key political technology methods and techniques that are being used to systematically craft disinformation and propaganda intended to influence public opinion and political decision-making in the West.

“In publishing this research our aim has been to provide a professional, technical assessment of some of Russia’s modern methods of information manipulation and propaganda. For a number of years, our conversations about these issues have pivoted around the discovery of fake social media accounts, and the disinforming narratives and visuals that they disseminate. The evidence we are reporting now starts to shift the focus of our effort towards who is responsible for designing and deploying these campaigns.

“In the process, focusing on the activities of Yevgeny Minchenko’s activities in the UK raises some troubling questions: First, how was he able to gain access to and cultivate extensive contacts with such senior figures in the UK? Secondly, what other activities was he engaged in during his period of ‘participant observation’ leading up to the Brexit vote?”

Professor Innes added: “Using publicly available open-source data and comparing across countries affords some important insights into the working concepts and methods of political technology. In many ways, they are mirroring the techniques and approaches being used by Western ‘open-source intelligence’ analysts, albeit refracted through a Russian lens.

“Cast as an instrument of Russian foreign policy, political technologists are gathering this publicly available information, such as media and polling data, and combining it with their capacity for original research and interpretation. The resulting materials are used to extrapolate key development trajectories and how they might be shaped and influenced by overt or covertly targeted information operations.

“The level of resource and training we are seeing Russia pour into this field is indicative of the increasing emphasis it puts on digital political technologies as a strategic geopolitical tool.”