Democratising Forecasting: enhancing analytical capacities in developing countries

Cardiff Business School's Professor of Data-Driven Decision Science, Bahman Rostami-Tabar, is equipping individuals in developing countries with the tools to make informed decisions and plan for uncertain futures in a series of free workshops. 

The Democratising Forecasting (DF) initiative, launched in 2018, aims to provide high-quality forecasting education to underprivileged communities worldwide, addressing a critical demand for forecasting skill sets as one of the most widely used operational research and management approaches. The project aims to bridge the data divide and ensure more accurate and reliable decision-making.

The initiative involves developing a curriculum and delivering in-person workshops for academics and practitioners in developing countries. The training covers the entire forecasting workflow, from identifying decisions that require forecasting to generating and evaluating forecast quality. It examines the theoretical basis of forecasting approaches, emphasising their advantages, limitations and practical applications in R.

Following an overwhelming response from in-person training sessions, Professor Rostami-Tabar led the development of AFRICAST, an online platform that provides forecasting education to learners in Sub-Saharan African countries. Originating from the Democratising Forecasting initiative, AFRICAST aims to make forecasting knowledge accessible, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

The AFRICAST project is a partnership between Cardiff Business School, Monash Business School, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, and Forecasting for Social Good (F4SG) at the International Institute of Forecasters. The workshops cover various topics, including live coding demonstrations, mentorship sessions, and lab exercises. Participants also gain free access to a comprehensive online repository featuring resources such as presentation slides, code, exercises, and workshop recordings. The first cohort of AFRICAST training took place virtually from 23 to 27 October 2023 and will be repeated annually.

Professor George Athanasopoulos, President of the International Institute of Forecasters said: “The International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) recognised the profound impact and importance of this programme from its inception. I would like to commend Professor Bahman Rostami-Tabar for his dedication and extraordinary commitment to the noble mission he embarked upon, even though it has not been all smooth sailing. Over the years, he has had to navigate through risks during his travels to bring this vision to fruition – IIF is committed to continue the support of this important task.”

Between January 2018 and December 2023, the training has benefited 473 individuals from 22 countries through in-person workshops and the online platform.

At the core of Democratising Forecasting is the 'Forecasting for Social Good (F4SG)' concept, a niche area established by Professor Rostami-Tabar, emphasising decision-making that prioritises societal wellbeing and UN Sustainable Development Goals. Time series forecasting, a key component of the project, uses historical data to predict future trends, enabling individuals to make strategic decisions aligned with broader social objectives.

Read more about Democratising Forecasting in an article published by INFORMS ORMS Today.